How Do Prediction Markets Work? A Plain Guide
How do prediction markets work? Traders buy yes/no event contracts that pay $1 or $0, and the price is the crowd's implied probability. …
Prediction markets let people trade on the outcome of real-world events — and they’re fast becoming a new corner of Wall Street. This hub covers how they work, who runs them and where they’re legal.
Read how Kalshi is building the new Wall Street with event contracts and perpetuals, and the state-by-state map of whether prediction markets are legal in the US.
Below is our full prediction-markets coverage, newest first.
How do prediction markets work? Traders buy yes/no event contracts that pay $1 or $0, and the price is the crowd's implied probability. …
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated dollar exchange, Polymarket a crypto-native market now onshore in the US. Here's how they …
What is Kalshi? It's a CFTC-regulated US exchange for trading yes/no event contracts on elections, economics, sports and crypto. Here's how …
Are prediction markets replacing sportsbooks? Kalshi and Polymarket cleared $50B in World Cup month as DraftKings and FanDuel usage fell. …
Are prediction markets legal in the US? Kalshi and Polymarket are federally cleared but banned or contested in a dozen states. The July 2026 …
Hyperliquid HIP-3 made perpetual markets permissionless — and triggered a brutal cull. Here's why one venue took 97% of the flow and HYPE …
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on how prediction markets and perpetuals are building a new Wall Street — democratizing forecasting and pricing …