Analysis
Who Is Benjamin Cowen? The Data-Driven Crypto Analyst
Who is Benjamin Cowen? A guide to the data scientist behind Into The Cryptoverse, his Bitcoin Risk Metric, logarithmic regression bands, and …
Bitcoin Cycle & Valuation: Models, Halvings & 2026
Bitcoin’s price is best understood not as a single number but as a position within a repeating four-year cycle shaped by halvings, liquidity and network adoption. This hub gathers our coverage of where Bitcoin sits in that cycle and the models people use to value it.
Start with the logarithmic fair-value regression for the long-run trend line, then weigh whether the four-year cycle is dead or just quieter and what the on-chain signals say about the bottom. Together they frame the same question from three angles: model, rhythm, and floor.
Below is everything we’ve published on the Bitcoin cycle and valuation, newest first.
All Bitcoin Cycle & Valuation coverage
Analysis
Market Seasonality Explained: Do Calendar Patterns Work?
Seasonality is the tendency of markets to move in recurring calendar patterns. Here is what the data says about Bitcoin, stocks, and 2026.
Analysis
Why Is Bitcoin Down While Stocks Are Up? Real Yields
Why is Bitcoin down while stocks are up? Mark Moss argues it isn't broken or manipulated — real yields and the risk curve pulled the money …
News
Franklin Templeton Bitcoin ETF: How the DRIP Works
The Franklin Templeton Bitcoin ETF funnels dividend cash into BTC automatically. Here's how the DRIP machine works, plus BlackRock's rival …
News
Why Did Strategy Sell Bitcoin? The 'Never Sell' Era Ends
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216M under a new BTC Monetization Program. Here's why Strategy sold Bitcoin and what it means for the market in …
Analysis
Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Dead? Cowen Says No
Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle dead? Benjamin Cowen argues 2026 is a less volatile replay of 2018 — same lows, same rhythm — and shares his …
Analysis
Where Is the Bitcoin Bottom? 3 On-Chain Signals
Where is the Bitcoin bottom? Investor Mark Moss says three on-chain signals plus the 200-week moving average mark deep value, not the exact …
Analysis
Strategy Death Spiral: Is Bitcoin Really Going to Zero?
Strategy's MSTR is down 82% and STRC broke its $100 peg. Is the death spiral real, or just another Bitcoin bear market? The cycle data, …
Analysis
Bitcoin 2026 vs 2018: Cowen's Midterm-Year Map
Bitcoin printed a July low at 57,700 — echoing 2018's 5,743 bottom. Benjamin Cowen's midterm-year cycle map and DCA strategy, explained.
Analysis
Bitcoin Below Fair Value: Cowen's 2026 Outlook
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin and crypto will stay below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line through 2026 — here's the model and …
Analysis
Economic Singularity: Raoul Pal's 2030 Crypto Thesis
Raoul Pal's economic singularity thesis says the old rules of economics break by 2030. Here's the GDP formula, the deflation shock, and the …
Analysis
Reed's Law and the Exponential Age of Crypto
Reed's Law says group-forming networks scale as 2^N, not N². Here's what the exponential-age thesis means for crypto network effects and …