Polymarket on Digital Asset Radar

How Do Prediction Markets Work? A Plain Guide

Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:11:14 +0000

A prediction market is a place where you trade contracts on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, next month’s inflation print, a football game, or where Bitcoin closes on Friday. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t, so its price between 1 and 99 cents reads directly as the market’s estimate of the odds: a contract at 63 cents means the crowd prices the event at roughly a 63% chance.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: How the Two Compare in 2026

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:49:29 +0000

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest prediction markets in the world, and the core difference is how they are built: Kalshi is a US dollar exchange regulated directly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while Polymarket is a crypto-native platform that settles trades in stablecoins and only returned to US users at the end of 2025. In practice, Kalshi dominates sports and economic contracts for American traders, while Polymarket runs the deepest global markets for politics and world events.

What Is Kalshi? How the Prediction Market Works

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:47:39 +0000

Kalshi is a US-based, federally regulated exchange where you trade “yes/no” contracts on the outcome of real-world events — an election result, next month’s inflation print, a football game, or where Bitcoin closes on Friday. It is overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the same regulator that supervises US futures markets, which is what separates it from an offshore betting site.

Are Prediction Markets Replacing Sportsbooks in 2026?

Wed, 15 Jul 2026 22:56:43 +0000

Prediction markets are not fully replacing sportsbooks yet, but during the 2026 World Cup they decisively out-traded them: Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood’s Rothera cleared more than $50 billion in combined notional volume in June 2026, while traditional books such as DraftKings and FanDuel were projected to take just $2.8–4.3 billion across the tournament’s 104 matches, per CoinDesk. For the first time, a CFTC-regulated exchange model out-drew the house-run sportsbook on its biggest event of the year.

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? 2026 State Map

Wed, 15 Jul 2026 22:32:22 +0000

Prediction markets are legal at the federal level across all 50 US states — Kalshi and the Polymarket US app both operate under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — but as of July 2026 more than a dozen states are trying to ban or restrict them, and courts have split on whether they can. The result is a live, unsettled map: legal nationwide on paper, contested or shut down in specific states, and heading toward a likely Supreme Court decision.