Market Cycle on Digital Asset Radar

Strategy Death Spiral: Is Bitcoin Really Going to Zero?

Sat, 04 Jul 2026 09:45:15 +0000

Bitcoin is roughly 15% below its October 2025 high of $126,000, Strategy’s MSTR stock is down more than 82% from its July 2025 peak, and its STRC preferred security has slipped from $100 to about $70 — but the “death spiral” and “Bitcoin is going to zero” headlines are describing a corporate-structure stress test at Strategy, not a repeat break in the four-year Bitcoin cycle itself.

Bitcoin 2026 vs 2018: Cowen's Midterm-Year Map

Sat, 04 Jul 2026 09:31:28 +0000

Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s 2026 price path is tracking its 2018 midterm-year cycle almost point for point — Bitcoin printed a new low of roughly $57,700 on July 1, 2026, mirroring the $5,743 low it made in late June 2018 — and that the disciplined response is to dollar-cost average (DCA) through the back half of the year rather than time an exact bottom.

Bitcoin Below Fair Value: Cowen's 2026 Outlook

Sat, 04 Jul 2026 09:31:15 +0000

Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin and the broader crypto asset class will spend most of 2026 trading below the “fair value” logarithmic regression trend line, with no durable move into overvaluation this cycle — a pattern he says mirrors the 2019–2020 monetary regime rather than a full-blown bull market.