Event Contracts on Digital Asset Radar

What Are Event Contracts? A Plain-English Guide

Sun, 26 Jul 2026 09:59:36 +0000

An event contract is a financial derivative that pays out $1 if a defined real-world event happens and $0 if it doesn’t — so its price, somewhere between 1 and 99 cents, reads directly as the market’s implied probability of that outcome. In the United States, event contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as derivatives, not as gambling, and they trade on federally licensed exchanges rather than at a sportsbook.

How Do Prediction Markets Work? A Plain Guide

Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:11:14 +0000

A prediction market is a place where you trade contracts on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, next month’s inflation print, a football game, or where Bitcoin closes on Friday. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t, so its price between 1 and 99 cents reads directly as the market’s estimate of the odds: a contract at 63 cents means the crowd prices the event at roughly a 63% chance.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: How the Two Compare in 2026

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:49:29 +0000

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest prediction markets in the world, and the core difference is how they are built: Kalshi is a US dollar exchange regulated directly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while Polymarket is a crypto-native platform that settles trades in stablecoins and only returned to US users at the end of 2025. In practice, Kalshi dominates sports and economic contracts for American traders, while Polymarket runs the deepest global markets for politics and world events.

What Is Kalshi? How the Prediction Market Works

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:47:39 +0000

Kalshi is a US-based, federally regulated exchange where you trade “yes/no” contracts on the outcome of real-world events — an election result, next month’s inflation print, a football game, or where Bitcoin closes on Friday. It is overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the same regulator that supervises US futures markets, which is what separates it from an offshore betting site.