Tavi Costa, founder of Azoria Capital, argues that mining companies at today’s prices generate better profit margins than Google or Meta — and that automation over the next 10 to 15 years turns the highest-quality gold, silver and copper assets into an outright arbitrage for patient owners. He calls the moment “the rebirth of mining.”

Speaking with GoldSilver’s Maggie Lake, Costa laid out a thesis that has little to do with the usual “gold goes up” trade. The real edge, he says, is owning irreplaceable physical assets before labor automation collapses their operating costs. Below we break down the argument, the numbers he cites, and where he tells investors to focus.

Key takeaways

  • Margins beat Big Tech. According to Costa, mining companies at current metal prices earn better margins than Google and Meta — a legacy industry “that will not go away.”
  • The automation arbitrage. A mine that employs 300–500 people today could run on roughly 12 workers within a decade, per a scenario Costa credits to Metalla Royalty & Streaming CEO Brett Heath. Owning the best assets before that shift is the trade.
  • Management is the differentiator. Costa says capital allocation — knowing when to acquire, sell, or pay down debt — separates winners from bureaucratic senior miners.
  • Rare earths are a distraction. He argues too much institutional capital chases “critical minerals” that are small, nichey markets, instead of applying first-principles: is it a good business?
  • Three pillars. Costa tells investors to focus on gold, silver and copper — and warns gold could reach $30,000 an ounce if supply isn’t planned.

Why mining margins now beat Google and Meta

The starting point of Costa’s argument is counterintuitive: an industry where “everything that could go wrong will go wrong” is also one of the best businesses available. Permitting is brutal, labor disputes are chronic, and the work is dirty and dangerous — yet at current metal prices, Costa says the economics “work like there’s no tomorrow.”

His claim is blunt: mining companies today have better margins than Google and better margins than Meta. That reframes miners not as speculative commodity plays but as high-margin producers of something society cannot function without. It is a legacy industry, in Costa’s words, that “will not go away.” The messiness is precisely why margins stay fat — capital is reluctant, competition is thin, and the assets are scarce.

The automation arbitrage explained

The most original idea in the conversation is what Costa frames as a 10-to-15-year arbitrage. He recounts a dinner with Metalla Royalty & Streaming CEO Brett Heath, who sketched a near future in which a mine currently run by 300 to 500 workers is operated by roughly 12 people sitting in an office — running the site remotely, 24/7, at full efficiency, “just like we fight wars today.”

Costa’s point is about timing, not technology. The world of abundance that automation promises still requires enormous quantities of raw material to build the robots in the first place. Quality mining assets take 10 to 15 years to bring online, and there are not many of them. So whoever owns the best assets before automation slashes their labor costs holds something that becomes “so profitable” once that world arrives.

For an investor with a genuinely long time horizon and no financial pressure to sell, Costa calls this an arbitrage worth going “deeper” for — hunting the irreplaceable assets he wants to hold for the next decade and beyond. It’s a variation on a theme we’ve explored in our look at the economic singularity and the coming automation shock: the winners are those who own the scarce inputs before the curve bends.

Why management is the real differentiator

Costa insists that in the age of AI, granular knowledge of who runs the company matters more than the commodity call. Management skill, he says, is not just about building, operating, and exploring mines — it’s about capital allocation. Knowing when to deploy capital to acquire assets, when to pay down debt, and when to sell is a skill “very few good managers” possess.

This is why he expects senior mining companies to keep falling behind each cycle while new companies emerge. Large incumbents fall into “the trap of the bureaucracy,” just like aging technology firms, and struggle to move quickly on acquisitions. Costa’s preference is the mid-tier operator: hungry, motivated management with good-but-improvable assets and the ambition to build a pipeline. He describes the technical talent pool in mining as being in genuine shortage — a small world where “they all know each other” — which is exactly why that niche expertise grows more valuable as the industry rebuilds.

Rare earths are a distraction: apply first principles

Costa’s sharpest critique targets the rush into “critical minerals.” Too much institutional capital, he argues, chases metals that are simply too small a market — rare earths, tungsten — because they’ve been labeled critical, not because they’re good businesses. “We’ve had enough people now,” he says of the rare-earth crowd.

His prescription is first-principles investing: before deploying capital, answer whether the underlying business is actually good and how much money it will make. “If you’re not buying the business, you’re chasing a meme,” as Maggie Lake put it in the exchange. Malinvestment, Costa notes, won’t even produce more critical minerals — throwing money at complex operations without the right business model and management yields nothing. It’s the same discipline that separates durable wealth from speculation in our breakdown of the laws of money the wealthy actually follow.

The three metals Costa says to focus on

Asked to simplify, Costa names three pillars: gold, silver and copper. He likes zinc and nickel too but deliberately leaves them off the shortlist — the message is focus, not breadth. If he had to pick one for institutional capital to “laser focus” on, it would be copper, citing the structural deficit he expects as electrification and buildout accelerate.

On gold, Costa makes his most eye-catching forecast: if supply isn’t planned properly over the next decade, and with central-bank demand persistent, gold could reach $30,000 an ounce. That number rhymes with the broader central-bank accumulation story we covered in China’s new gold system — a world where physical metal, not paper claims, sets the price. Costa also flags the competition for capital from mega-IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, noting that capital for mining “is still scarce” even as institutional interest slowly returns.

Frequently asked questions

What is Tavi Costa’s “rebirth of mining” thesis?

Tavi Costa, founder of Azoria Capital, argues the mining sector is entering a rebuilding phase where high-quality assets earn better margins than Big Tech and automation will make the best mines extraordinarily profitable over the next 10 to 15 years. The opportunity, he says, is owning irreplaceable physical assets before that shift plays out.

Which metals does Tavi Costa recommend focusing on?

Costa tells investors to focus on three pillars: gold, silver and copper. He singles out copper as the standout because of the structural supply deficit he expects, and he warns against over-allocating to rare earths and other small “critical minerals” markets.

Could gold really reach $30,000 an ounce?

Costa says gold could reach $30,000 an ounce if mining supply isn’t planned properly over the coming decade while central-bank demand stays strong. It’s a scenario, not a price target — his point is that scarce, under-invested supply plus persistent demand creates asymmetric upside.

Why does Costa prefer mid-tier miners over senior producers?

Costa argues senior mining companies fall into “the trap of the bureaucracy” and struggle to allocate capital or acquire new assets quickly. He favors hungry, motivated mid-tier management teams with good assets and the ambition to build a stronger pipeline over the next cycle.

This analysis is based on a July 2026 GoldSilver conversation between Maggie Lake and Tavi Costa. It is commentary, not investment advice — always do your own research.