Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle dead? No — according to analyst Benjamin Cowen, 2026 has traced almost the exact path Bitcoin walked in 2018, printing a July low near $57,000 that mirrors the $5,700 bottom of the last midterm year. In a July 6, 2026 video, Cowen argues the cycle “strikes again,” even as its critics grow louder.

Bitcoin trades around $63,000–$64,000 as of early July 2026, having set a fresh local low of roughly $57,000 on July 1. That number is the crux of Cowen’s case: it is almost exactly ten times the $5,700 low Bitcoin made in the same week of 2018.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin printed a July 1, 2026 low near $57,000 — roughly 10x the $5,700 low from the same week in 2018, per Benjamin Cowen’s chart comparison.
  • 2026 is tracking 2018 beat for beat: February low, higher low in early April, lower high in May, February-low sweep in June — a “less volatile version” of the prior midterm year.
  • Cowen expects a deviation: he thinks Bitcoin will bottom earlier than 2018 did (which bottomed in December), naming October 2026 as a candidate for the final low.
  • His strategy is to dollar-cost average in the second half of midterm years, not the first half — the July 1 low validated waiting.
  • The four-year cycle “doesn’t mean down only,” Cowen stresses — it describes the cadence of when lows form, not a permanent bear case.

Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle dead? The 2018 replay

The Bitcoin four-year cycle is not dead, Cowen argues — and 2026 is the proof. He walks through a point-by-point overlay of this year against 2018, and the structure lines up almost mechanically:

  • A low in February (both years)
  • A higher low in late March / early April
  • A lower high in May, capped at the 200-day moving average (what Cowen calls the “bear market resistance band”)
  • A sweep of the February low in June

In 2018 that June sweep bottomed at $5,700. In 2026 it bottomed near $57,000 — the same rhythm, one decimal place to the right. “It’s just a pattern, guys,” Cowen says. “It’s the same pattern over and over again.”

He is candid about the limits of the data: with only a handful of prior cycles, “we’re just doing the best we can.” But he pushes back on the idea that a four-year rhythm makes Bitcoin un-investable. The stock market, he notes, also bottoms on a roughly four-year cadence — and nobody argues you should avoid equities for that reason.

What comes next if 2018 keeps rhyming

If the 2018 script continues, the near-term path is a brief window of strength. In 2018, Bitcoin staged a counter-trend rally in early July, pulled back around the middle of the month, then pushed higher into late July before giving all of it back in August. Cowen expects a similar mid-July pullback in 2026, possibly around the release of the next inflation report.

His framework for this is “windows of strength and windows of weakness.” July, he says, typically offers a short window of strength inside a larger window of weakness that runs through the summer. The rally can carry Bitcoin back up toward the 200-day moving average “and it still hasn’t broken anything that it did in 2018.” The give-back usually arrives in August and September.

Where Cowen thinks 2026 will deviate from 2018

Cowen does not expect a carbon copy — and this is his most concrete original call. He thinks Bitcoin will likely bottom before December 2026, whereas the 2018 cycle didn’t put in its final low until December. His reasoning: this cycle’s top was in October, and Bitcoin bear markets have historically run about one year, which puts October 2026 on the table as a candidate month for the low. He flags 2014 as the exception — that bear market ran slightly longer than a year — so a later Q4 bottom remains possible.

In other words, when critics insist “this time it has to be different,” Cowen partly agrees. He just thinks the difference will be an earlier bottom, not a broken cycle. This is a useful contrast with the deeper-value framing in our look at where the Bitcoin bottom actually sits, which leans on on-chain signals rather than calendar rhythm.

Why 2026 feels worse than the charts say

One reason sentiment is so sour, Cowen argues, is that 2026 topped on apathy rather than euphoria. In the last cycle, Bitcoin ran to a euphoric ~$20,000 peak with a full rotation into altcoins before rolling over to $6,000. This time the top was around $126,000 — but there was no final blow-off to $200,000 and no altcoin mania. Bitcoin “topped on apathy rather than euphoria,” so the drawdown from $126,000 to $60,000 feels heavier even though it is, by his read, less volatile than 2018.

He also takes aim at analysts who spent the year hunting for macro confirmation — tying Bitcoin to the ISM index or the money supply — and missed the simpler seasonal call. In 2014 Bitcoin fell while the ISM rose; in 2015 the ISM fell while Bitcoin rose. “You can’t always look for soft macro data to support a bull or bear thesis for Bitcoin,” he says. For the model-driven counterpoint, see our breakdown of Cowen’s fair-value regression outlook.

How Cowen is positioning

Cowen’s practical takeaway is a seasonal dollar-cost-averaging plan: ignore Bitcoin in the first half of a midterm year and DCA in the second half. The fresh low on July 1 was, in his words, “a pretty good view” that waiting paid off. Picking up small amounts now means “at least you’re not sitting there wondering if you missed the low” — while still hoping price revisits lower levels for a bigger accumulation.

Crucially, he frames the four-year cycle as a rhythm, not a verdict. “The four-year cycle doesn’t mean down only,” he says. “It means there’s this cadence to when the lows occur.” When that cadence eventually breaks — and he expects it will someday — he says he’ll change his strategy. Until then, he defers to it. For a related cycle debate, our piece on the Strategy “death spiral” tests whether MSTR’s drawdown signals something worse than an ordinary bear market.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle dead in 2026?

No, according to Benjamin Cowen. In his July 6, 2026 analysis he argues the four-year cycle “strikes again,” with 2026 tracing the same February low, April higher low, May lower high, and June low sweep that defined 2018 — just at roughly 10x the price levels.

Where did Bitcoin bottom in July 2026?

Bitcoin printed a local low of approximately $57,000 on July 1, 2026, per Cowen’s charts, and was trading around $63,000–$64,000 by July 6. He notes this closely mirrors the $5,700 low Bitcoin made in the same week of 2018.

When does Benjamin Cowen expect the Bitcoin bottom?

Cowen expects the final low to form earlier than 2018 did. Because this cycle topped in October and Bitcoin bear markets tend to last about a year, he names October 2026 as a candidate month for the bottom, while acknowledging a later Q4 low is possible.

What is Cowen’s Bitcoin strategy for a midterm year?

Cowen favors ignoring Bitcoin in the first half of a midterm year and dollar-cost averaging in the second half. He views the July 1, 2026 low as validation of that seasonal approach, and treats any July rally toward the 200-day moving average as a window of strength inside a broader window of weakness.

Analysis based on the source video below. Not financial advice.